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31 July 2011
Last year over at my old site I put together a list of the Top 25 Leaf Players/Prospects under the age of 25 (meaning if they are 25 they're excluded from the list.) Last year there were six Leafs roster players on the list, 14 players who would begin the year in the AHL or ECHL, and 5 prospects not yet playing in the Leafs organization. Of those 25, 5 players are no longer with the organization. Versteeg and Stefanovich were traded, and Hanson, Irwin, and Flaake are of no further interest to the Leafs.
This year it is likely that at least 8 or 9 of the top 25 will be starting the season on the Leafs roster. Also there are six players that will be playing either in the CHL or NCAA this year. The remaining 10 all seem capable of at least challenging for spot duty on the Leafs this season.
The methodology used in determining the top 25 is simple. It's personal opinion. Valuing Tyler Biggs over Greg McKegg is just simply my belief that Biggs being a safe bet to fill some role within the top nine is more valuable than McKegg's hit or miss offensive production.
The omissions, even compared to last season it seems difficult to determine who belongs in the top 25. Key additions like Mark Owuya, and Tyler Brenner didn't make the cut, though Brenner would easily be number 26 on the list, and the recent signing of David Broll certainly makes me wonder if he's more than the next Jamie Devane type project he originally appeared to be. Both Broll and Nilsson seemed like possible additions from this draft that might be worth listing. By my count the Leafs have 47 players in the organization under than age of 25.
The top 25:
25. Jerry D'Amigo: Last summer I was high on the possibility that D'Amigo could potentially crack the Leafs lineup. His success for RPI and at the World Juniors seemed like he'd at least be a top six player for the Marlies. Instead D'Amigo didn't live up to those expectations and was bounced back down to Kitchener where he proved he can still dominate at a lower level.
All of the tools are still there, and with another year of experience and knowing the level of play in the AHL, D'Amigo might be capable of living up to the expectations of being a top six player in the AHL. With guys like Frattin, Caputi, Kadri and Colborne in front of him he's unlikely to see a call up to the Leafs this season, but if he can put up a solid season with the Marlies he should still be on track for a productive career.
24. Juraj Mikus: At times injuries and Marlies defensive depth halted the progress of Mikus last season, but with a big frame and offensive capabilities he's still on track for a productive career. The defensive depth chart plays against Mikus as Gardiner, Blacker, and Percy seem to be the top prospects, and Holzer, Gysbers, and Mikus have the opportunity to be pleasant surprises.
23. Sondre Olden: Olden as a 6'4 offensively minded center his upside is clear, unfortunately only weighing 176 lbs means there are some questions to answer as well. He has the speed and vision to succeed, but if he can't use his size to his advantage he will quickly be forgotten.
For more on Olden check out a recent post at Leafs Nation Online
22. Ben Scrivens: Scrivens has moved up slightly in the rankings from last season, and that shouldn't be too surprising. Originally he seemed like he would be in Reading throughout the year, but as the injury bug hit the Marlies net, Ben proved that he can be a reliable AHL starter.
While Scrivens still has some developing to do it is not out of the realm of possibility that he will pass Jussi Rynnas in the goaltending depth chart as soon as in training camp. It is also possible that Scrivens could see time in the NHL courtesy of Gustavsson's wonky heart or inconsistent play.
21. Josh Nicholls: Nicholls is exactly what you want to find in the seventh round, a boom or bust prospect that almost immediately starts booming after drafting him. While he has stepped up as a scoring leader in WHL, he'll need to prove it wasn't a fluke. He's also not yet old enough to play in the AHL and unlikely to make Leafs any time soon so have patience on this promising winger.
20. Jussi Rynnas: While Rynnas might not have taken the leaps and bounds that Reimer and Scrivens did last season there is still a strong possibility that Rynnas could develop into a solid goaltender. While he might not have come to North America with Gustavsson's raw talent, Rynnas has had the benefit of being developed properly. If he has a less injury plagued season, and has more months like last November it is entirely possible that Rynnas could be the Leafs backup by the end of the season.
19. Stuart Percy: Okay, I had a mild freakout at the time Percy was drafted. He was certainly not who I would have selected in the first round, and in fact I would have been iffy on picking him with the Leafs 39th overall pick had they retained it.
Those things aside, Percy is a solid two-way defensive prospect. He doesn't seem like a top pairing guy, he doesn't seem like he'd be a top powerplay quarterback or top penalty killer either. What he does seem like is a guy who is going to fit in secondary roles well, and should be good for 20 minutes a night once he develops. His lack of physical play is disappointing, and he's not the biggest player, but he makes up for a lot with good hockey sense.
18. Marcel Mueller: Much like D'Amigo I had lofty expectations of Mueller for last season. Where Boyce, and Crabb were able to join the Leafs and make differences, I fully expected that Mueller would be one of those guys.
Part of what needs to happen with Mueller is a transition away from any kind of offensive game and move towards being a great penalty killing forward who can help shutdown the oppositions top line. There isn't any lack of depth for forwards Burke is trying to slot into those roles, but if Mueller can add a mean streak to his game he could become the best option.
17. Brad Ross: Ross is still boss. Everything about Brad reminds me of Steve Downie, but unfortunately that also means he still must learn how to go to the line but not cross it. With a pair of playoff suspensions Ross doesn't seem to realize that he still skilled enough that the team will be better with him on the ice, not in the penalty box. If Ross can put together another strong season this year I don't doubt that he could be challenging for a job on the Leafs as soon as next season since he provides the sand paper that Burke craves.
16. Korbinan Holzer: Another strong Marlie defender who seems capable of moving into the bottom part of the Leafs depth chart in the next couple of seasons. He's reliable but lacks the flashiness of top prospects like Blacker and Gardiner. Holzer might have an advantage for making the Leafs due to tighter defensive game than some of the other Marlies. Korbinan normally represents himself well in the World Hockey Championships and that experience against a high level of competition in World Tournaments should give him a few games at the ACC if the blueline is plagued with injuries or if Burke is able to jettison Komisarek.
15. Luca Caputi: Much like in my post last year I'll start off by saying I don't expect much from Caputi. He wasn't going to be shipped out of Pittsburgh for Ponikarovsky if he was a sure bet NHLer. That being said he had a tough go of it last season. He was demoted just for being waiver exempt, than was called back up to the Leafs to play minimal minutes or sit in the press box as a healthy scratch. When he was finally returned to the Marlies he soon suffered a season ending injury.
So Caputi gets a mulligan. That being said he needs to put up points consistently and try and incorporate a bit more physical play. There isn't any reason why Caputi can't at least be leader again on the Marlies and he should get a couple of chances with the Leafs. Hopefully he'll be utilized more to his skill set this time.
14. Greg McKegg: Besides having one of the all time greatest names, McKegg can actually play hockey. He can put up points, and he's close to NHL ready size, if McKegg can put together another strong year in the OHL he's likely the organizations second best scoring forward prospect after Joe Colborne (3rd if you still classify Kadri as a prospect.)
13. Tyler Biggs: Much like the Stuart Percy pick, I found Burke's decision to draft Biggs when he did to be a little surprising. It's not that Biggs shouldn't have gone when he did, it's just he didn't seem like the best choice for the Leafs if it meant giving up their second round pick.
That being said, I would have liked Biggs with the 30th overall pick. He adds the size and physical play that Burke has been demanding for the Leafs. Potentially Biggs will find his scoring touch that has been inconsistent at best in the past year. Biggs also has decent speed which could be another nice piece of the puzzle in the power forward project.
Biggs will spend the 2011-12 season at University of Miami Ohio. Here's a post I wrote on Biggs back in May well before his affiliation with the Leafs.
12. Jesse Blacker: Blacker moved forward nicely in the 2010-11 season and was able to play an important role on the Owen Sound run to the OHL championship. He played key minutes and put up respectable point totals throughout the tournament. It seems unlikely that Blacker will be ready to join the Leafs this season, but a strong season could help make a case for spot duty in 2012-13.
11. Matt Lashoff: Lashoff is an interesting case. He certainly isn't a prospect anymore, and he hasn't stepped up to take an everyday role either. What does seem to be evident is that he's capable of surpassing Komisarek on the depth chart, and his price tag is more in line with what you'd want for a seventh defenseman.
Lashoff has decent size, decent speed, and moves the puck well enough to be capable of stepping into the second powerplay unit.
10. Matt Frattin: After being ignored from my list last season it became evident that I was either weighing his off-ice issues too heavily or that I am incapable of gauging the success of prospects (a little of column A, a little of column B.) What we have learned about Frattin is that he can score, he can hit, and that Burke thinks he's NHL ready.
9. Jake Gardiner: I think it's safe to say there isn't any room on the Leafs roster for Gardiner as of today, but I wouldn't be surprised if Burke opens some room up on the blueline to give the kid his chance. The role that Liles will be filling this season seems to Gardiner's in the long run, and if the speedy defender demonstrates his abilities this season he'll be a Leafs regular soon enough.
8. Joe Colborne: I haven't really discussed Colborne too much on this blog because I don't want to come off as too eager to see him succeed. With Colborne I truly want to believe that he is the long term number one center for the Leafs even though his upside sells him as a second line guy. He'll never be as physical as he should be, but hopefully he will at least use his side to protect the puck and not be intimidated from driving the net. He has great vision and soft hands and will likely get a look as soon as Tim Connolly suffers his first injury of the season.
7. Carl Gunnarsson: I've bumped Gunnarsson back one spot from last season, but it is more due to the rise of Reimer and the addition of Franson than it is to him declining. At times last year it was painful to know that Gunnarsson was in the pressbox in favour of Brett Lebda, but after Beauchemin and Kaberle were dealt Carl was able to reestablish himself as a minute eating defenseman, albeit one that still has much to learn. If Carl continues to get a regular shift it won't be long before some of his youthful mistakes disappear. Look for Gunnarsson to be a staple of the second powerplay unit and likely the secondary PK unit as well.
6. Cody Franson: Franson has to be considered the steal of the summer for the Leafs. If ridding the team of Brett Lebda wasn't enough, the Leafs acquired a young defender who will immediately help their powerplay as well as their blueline. While Franson may never be a top pairing guy, he'll be a solid fifth defender who can move up into the top four as needed. At 6'5 it would be great to see an increased mean streak out of him, and personally I'd love to see him paired with Keith Aulie for a twin towers pairing.
5. Keith Aulie: At some point this summer I realized that Keith Aulie might be my favourite Leaf. This probably explains why I inexcusably have him ahead of possibly three more deserving players. I can't help the fact that I love shutdown defenders (I still have my Sylvain Lefebvre jersey,) especially those who are giants and are not afraid to drop the gloves. As far as development goes Aulie is behind Gunnarsson and Schenn, but still seems more capable than Matt Lashoff. His waiver exempt status, the depth of defense, and desire for him to play quality minutes could see him starting the season on the Marlies, but I hope that doesn't happen. I'd argue at this point fifteen minutes a night in the NHL benefits Aulie more than 20 in the AHL. He'll never be an offensive threat, but that's never been expected of him.
4. James Reimer: Considering that Reimer was largely responsible for the Leafs second half success, I've placed Reimer rather low.
Considering the fact he has been anointed the team's starting goaltender it seems that he'd at least fall into the top two with either the top scorer or the face of the franchise. Chalk this up to being cautious since a save percentage over .920 seems too good to be true.
Reimer doesn't seem like the kind of player who will sit back and not have to work at maintaining his success, but there still aren't any guarantees that his numbers are sustainable for him, it's too early. That's why it's a little shocking to see Reimer and Gustavsson going into the season as the goaltending tandem, with no veteran safety need, not even waiting in the AHL.
With the improved blueline it takes some of the pressure off Reimer, and hopefully the coaching changes will result in a more capable penalty killing unit that won't be hanging the goaltenders out to dry.
3. Nazem Kadri: The new hope. There were flashes of brilliance in Kadri's limited time with the Leafs last season, but also some unwillingness to divorce himself from what has worked for him in the juniors. Kadri's creativity isn't something that you would want to disappear, but until he anticipates defenders better he'll be somewhat of a turnover machine.
I won't go into Kadri too much, having just written a post about him, and my expectations for him, but he'll be a top six forward soon enough.
2. Luke Schenn: Schenn seemed to shake his slight regression in play he experienced in his second season. He certainly benefitted from consistently playing on the right side of the rink, and his best games were when he was paired with passing outlet like Kaberle or Gunnarsson. The addition of John-Michael Liles seems like it will directly benefit Luke who should see the expectations for him rise in his fourth season, one that will see him getting a nice pay raise.
It will be interesting to see if Schenn can live up to his increased hype. Do you judge Schenn as a 4th year defender or as a 21 year old? Do you rate him based off his performance or his performance compared to his salary? I have to question if this is the year that the Schenn honeymoon phase wears off and people immediately expect him to start the season as a Scott Stevens or Adam Foote clone?
The truth is probably somewhere in between and Schenn will be an impressive 21 year old who seems a step behind older 4th year veterans. He'll ultimately wind up being overpaid (I assume if he was going to get under $3.5 million he'd be signed by now) and he won't yet be a top shutdown defender in the league, but there will be flashes of brilliance.
And the top guy under 25 for the second year is...
1. Phil Kessel: As if there was any doubt. When I look back to the comments in last season's post there was some questioning if Kessel had already reached his ceiling. I'd argue that a 24 year old who has spent the past couple of seasons with second rate linemates doesn't have a known ceiling. Last year we learned that Kessel is capable of playing a 200 foot game, this year we could learn that he's an accomplished penalty killer.
More realistically Kessel will be given the chance to reach his potential by having an established playmaking center, and winger capable grinding for pucks in the corner as his linemates. Does this mean that Kessel is not a 40 goal forward? Nope, but it certainly gives him a better shot.
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